In the 2026 Outlook, long-term structural shifts are becoming increasingly relevant when assessing near-term dynamics.
We see this as a transition, not a downturn, an innovation-led phase supported by AI-related capital expenditure, defence and industrial policies focused on strategic autonomy, and an ongoing reallocation of capital, growth and risk.
These forces are reshaping global power balances and trade patterns, raising costs and moderating activity, yet without signalling a breakdown in globalisation.
It remains too early to determine whether AI-driven productivity gains will offset demographic headwinds. In the meantime, rising US IT investment is helping to cushion domestic demand weakness.
Rising public debt pressures are likely to become a greater concern; however, in the short term the positive effects of large tax cuts (for example, the One Big, Beautiful Bill) and higher defence and infrastructure spending may temporarily mitigate that risk.
Growth has proven resilient but remains fragile, and major economies are unlikely to see a sharp acceleration. Inflation risks are becoming more structural, underpinned by strategic reshoring and the energy transition.
Against this background, we set out our key investment convictions for 2026, together with ETF implementation opportunities to help investors translate these convictions into actionable portfolio ideas.[1]
